A question that is sometimes asked is how, in an iterative model, can long-term release planning be done. There are two cases to consider: (1) a new product in its first release, and (2) an existing product in a later release.
In the case of a new product, or an existing product just adopting Scrum, there is the need to do initial Product Backlog refinement before the first Sprint, where the Product Owner and Team shape a proper Scrum Product Backlog. This could take a few days or a week, and involves a workshop (sometimes called Initial Product Backlog Creation or Release Planning), some detailed requirements analysis, and estimation of all the items identified for the first release.
Surprisingly in Scrum, in the case of an established product with an established Product Backlog, there should not be the need for any special or extensive release planning for the next release. Why? Because the Product Owner and Team should be doing Product Backlog refinement every Sprint (five or ten percent of each Sprint), continuously preparing for the future. This continuous product development mode obviates the need for the dramatic punctuated prepare-execute-conclude stages one sees in traditional sequential life cycle development.
During an initial Product Backlog refinement workshop and during the continuous backlog refinement each Sprint, the Team and Product Owner will do release planning, refining the estimates, priorities, and content as they learn.
Some releases are date-driven; for example: “We will release version 2.0 of our project at a trade-show on November 10.” In this situation, the Team will complete as many Sprints (and build as many features) as is possible in the time available. Other products require certain features to be built before they can be called complete and the product will not launch until these requirements are satisfied, however long that takes. Since Scrum emphasizes producing potentially shippable code each Sprint, the Product Owner may choose to start doing interim releases, to allow the customer to reap the benefits of completed work sooner.
Since they cannot possibly know everything up front, the focus is on creating and refining a plan to give the release broad direction, and clarify how tradeoff decisions will be made (scope versus schedule, for example). Think of this as the roadmap guiding you towards your final destination; which exact roads you take and the decisions you make during the journey may be determined en route.
The destination is more important than the journey.
Most Product Owners choose one release approach. For example, they will decide a release date, and will work with the Team to estimate the Product Backlog items that can be completed by that date. The items that are anticipated to be in the current release are sometimes called the release items. In situations where a “fixed price / fixed date / fixed deliverable” commitment is required – for example, contract development – one or more of those parameters must have a built-in buffer to allow for uncertainty and change; in this respect, Scrum is no different from other approaches.