Why is estimating that difficult? Jurgen de Smet explains.
Many cognitive biases are entering the field of estimation that lead to systematic errors of judgment. These biases tend to be overly optimistic rather than pessimistic regarding the amount of work required to generate a certain value (see reference to Kahneman in this video).
The use of “story points” sometimes does little more than foster overconfidence which, in reality, is merely an illusion. How can a CxO, software manager or developer take estimation metrics seriously if they are based on intuitive predictions?!
Scrum does not provide a single way to estimate efforts. Scrum tells us that product backlog items should have an estimate next to a description, order and value. Nothing more, nothing less.
So, let’s see what’s out there and how we can use it to fix bad estimations and forecasting.
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About me:
I'm a Chief Simplification Officer, I help leaders of large organizations deliver on their commitments to high performance.
Before, during and after an Agile adoption or any kind of Lean transformation, large organizations often find that they need to de-scale and simplify organizational structures and processes. I function as an Executive-level guide for companies approaching their second growth phase. Industry leaders in banking, insurance, telecommunications, healthcare, utilities and media hire me to help remove obstacles in their path to innovation.
We address specific pain points in the system so upper-management can learn to enable emergent solutions. For example:
➸ Horizontal complexity- consolidating functions across the enterprise
➸ Vertical complexity - shedding obsolete roles, layers and reporting structures
➸ Spatial complexity - preparing distributed / remote teams for success
Contact us : https://simplificationofficers.com/
